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Your predictions on depreciation levels over the course of the next 4 yrs
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Default Your predictions on depreciation levels over the course of the next 4 yrs - 10th August 2016, 11:54 PM

Hey folks,

Pondering about buying a brand new R60 - 2nd Generation Countryman JWC. straight off a dealer, before 3rd gen comes out in new year.

The car I built comes up to 39k or so with all the extras I chuck in.
My question to you is what would think the value of the car be over the course of the next 4-5 yrs?


My (uneducated) forecast/prediction is:

Now: On the road price 39k
1 yr from now: 30k
2 yr from now: 25k
3 yr from now: 20k
4 yr from now: 15.5k
5 yr from now: 11.5k

Will be grateful for your thoughts if you can lay it out for me in a similar manner.

PS. If it will be of any reference point, the “optional final rental” after a 4 yr hire agreement is just under 15k. (My understanding is that this is in essence the “GFV” as forecasted by Mini Finance themselves.?)


*EDIT: Assume the car will make 8k miles or less p/yr on avg.

Last edited by negativeyardage; 11th August 2016 at 08:29 AM. Reason: annual mileage assumption added
  
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Default 11th August 2016, 08:28 AM

Don't want to depress you but I have just had a quote for my 35k Dec 2015 JCW with 8k miles, mint condition, of 18k

I have a 4 year PCP with final valuation at 13.6k. As I always intended to change at 3 years I am now wondering if I should have done 3 years which would at least guaranteed me 16.1k

Great car though I don't regret buying it, always cheers me up.

Ps don't forget on a PCP you get 3.75k dealer contribution.

Last edited by maximillian; 11th August 2016 at 11:13 AM.
  
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Default 11th August 2016, 09:07 AM

ouch maxi!
wasnt expecting that steep of a drop!!!
when I scan the market for used cars and trying to take similar specced, like-for-like comparisons, that was certainly not the impression I had!


Re Dealer contribution: Yes, aware of the fact. That was in there from 39 to 30s in my mind, easing out the pain of that 10k drop in yr1.
  
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Default 11th August 2016, 09:25 AM

The other problem is how the new model will effect prices?
  
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Default Your predictions on depreciation levels over the course of the next 4 yrs - 11th August 2016, 10:45 AM

When a new model is released the GMFV will drop like a stone likewise your trade in value.

If you plan on keeping the car then buy it or get it on a PCP before the new one is released. If you buy one after, your residual will be proper rubbish.

TBH residuals on countrymans have never been great.

At a list of 39k id be looking at an X1



  
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Default 11th August 2016, 12:55 PM

i would touch a mini for 39k sorry there are far greater cars out there.

they have also discontinued it so when the new one comes out, you will take a hit on the value too.

up to you
  
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Default 11th August 2016, 01:13 PM

Ouch, that is a big drop.

39K for a MINI seems a little outrageous to me.
  
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Default 11th August 2016, 02:18 PM

Thanks for the views and input peeps.

Anyway
any forecasts/opinions in the form of below would be grand Cheers.


Now: On the road price 39k
1 yr from now: Xk
2 yr from now: Xk
3 yr from now: Xk
4 yr from now: Xk
5 yr from now: Xk
  
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Default Your predictions on depreciation levels over the course of the next 4 yrs - 11th August 2016, 03:35 PM

As it stands is expect your car would be worth

1yr 30k of your lucky
2yr 22k
3yr 15k
4yr 13k
5yr 11k

That's with average to low mileage (8-10k) pa.



  
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Default Your predictions on depreciation levels over the course of the next 4 yrs - 11th August 2016, 03:38 PM

Also one to remember is that BMW have a 7 year life cycle on models with a face lift at roughly year 4.

If you can hang on, buy the new model. Residuals will be better and you won't be miffed that you'd just bought a car that is due to be replaced by a newer model.



  
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